BccList.com’s 2008 General Election Prediction – State by State

The posting below was originally made election day while I was eating some lunch at my desk.  The updated results can be seen on BccList.com here.

Obama will win with 53.4% of the popular vote and 323 electoral votes.

Trust me, BccList.com’s prediction model is using a very complicated – almost google complicated – algorithm. Ha!

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia

Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana

Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota

Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York

North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma

Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah

Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming

Hardening Views – How Important is Your Candidate Winning the Election?

In July, voters were asked how important it was to them that their candidate won the 2008 election for president. They were asked again over the past week…

Math 101…

Obama: 52% + 34% = 86% die hard support.

mccain: 48% + 34% = 82% die hard support.

I’m obviously pleased to see a larger percentage of die hard support for Obama. Will a die hard supporter turn out to vote? Who knows? Moreover, this chart lacks any sort of relevance until you consider this overly important swing state data…

In 2004, 33% of respondents identified themselves as a republican. In the same year, 35% of respondents identified themselves as a democrat.

Fast forward to 2008 – 36% of respondents identify themselves as a democrat and just 27% of respondents identify themselves as a republican. Yes, 27%.

No matter how close the “die hard” numbers are, none of that matters if you’ve lost 12% of your party. Good night and good luck as originally seen on BccList.com here